NASCAR at Richmond expert predictions: Is Truex's moment finally here? (2024)

After a rare two-week break for the Paris Olympics, the NASCAR Cup Series is returning to Richmond Raceway, the “Action Track,” for the second time this season. Denny Hamlin won it here in March and is one of the favorites to win it again.

The oval track right outside of Richmond, Virginia, has hosted more than 100 Cup Series races in its time and is famous for tight racing. For Sunday’s race, though, a new wrinkle: Teams will be choosing between two different Goodyear tire options, similar to Formula 1 racing.

We got with our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to explain this change along with their favorite for the race, long shots they like and their thoughts on the playoff picture.

The Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway is set for Sunday at 6 p.m. ET and broadcasts on USA.

Welcome back! How was your break? How much NASCAR did you consume despite being officially on pause?

Jeff: I went on a social media blackout for two full weeks, so not much. Aside from people texting me some news on occasion (mostly stories Jordan broke), I truly didn’t see much of anything about NASCAR. Which, on the one hand, makes sense because there weren’t any races or major news, but it’s also a bit jarring how quickly the sport could disappear in the middle of its season. Hopefully this push to the playoffs, starting with an interesting Richmond race, will help fans jump right back into the storylines.

Jordan:What vacation? Seriously. Did the NASCAR news cycle stop, or even really slow all that down?

Point taken! I think I know Jordan’s answer on this next one: During the Olympics, NASCAR teams in theory had an extra two weeks off they don’t usually get. Have you heard from anyone how they feel coming back? Did everyone really take the time off, or did any teams keep working trying to find speed, as you mentioned would be tempting? How have breaks affected racing in the past, if at all?

Jeff: Insert shrug emoji here! I’m writing this on my first day back into the world and have yet to open Instagram, so I don’t even know where all the drivers went on vacation. I assume most sane people decided to take at least some time off during this rare two-week break (which probably won’t happen ever again, by the way!) — except for Jordan, of course.

Jordan:Again, what vacation? Some teams did shut down, or gave employees some extended time off, which is certainly deserved considering the grind of the schedule. What remains to be seen is whether any team(s) made any performance gains over the break that they’ll be able to use to their advantage.

Question from a commenter last time we met: “Jordan mentions [Brickyard] being one of the four ‘Crown Jewels.’ I hear different variations of the ‘Crown Jewel’ races. Is it four races, six? What are the true Crown Jewel races?”

Jeff: To me, it’s pretty simple and straightforward now that the Brickyard 400 is back on the schedule. It’s the Daytona 500, Brickyard 400, Southern 500 and Coca-Cola 600 (that would be my ranking of them as well, but I bet a lot of people would move the Brickyard lower). Any other arguments, like adding the All-Star Race or Bristol Night Race, just don’t hold up, in my opinion. If you can’t quickly name the last few winners of a specific race off the top of your head, then it must not be a “major,” right?

Jordan:What constitutes a “crown jewel” is pretty straightforward: It’s about the prestige of winning, the kind of victory that is a line note on a driver’s resume. The four races that fit this criteria are the four listed above. That’s it.

After this Sunday, we have just three races left before the playoffs. Any predictions for drivers on the bubble?

Jeff: Bubba Wallace has largely erased a significant deficit to the playoff bubble and is now just seven points behind Ross Chastain (and 17 behind Chris Buescher). Both Chastain and Buescher should be nervous because Wallace has a strong record at Michigan and anything could happen at Daytona. Even if there’s a new winner to move the cut line up further, Wallace appears to be the driver with momentum at the moment. I’m most concerned about Chastain, who has backslid from ninth to 13 in the overall point standings in the last four races (average finish of 26.5 during that time).

Jordan:How tight the standings are, combined with the variety of upcoming tracks — let’s not overlook the regular-season finale at Darlington, which is uniquely demanding — should make the stretch run to the playoffs wildly compelling. As for who qualifies and who doesn’t, a case for and against could be made for anyone on the bubble.

Denny Hamlin won at Richmond in the spring and is the favorite to win again. Do you like those odds? Who is your favorite to win?

Jeff: This seems like a golden opportunity for Martin Truex Jr. to win, given he was en route to victory in the spring race until a late caution triggered overtime. That was the race Hamlin appeared to jump the restart and it wasn’t called. This is typically a race that rewards drivers like Truex or Hamlin who understand how to manage their tires over the course of a long run because it’s a high-wear race that creates differing strategies (either one stop or two stops in the stages).

Jordan:Richmond has long been a Joe Gibbs Racing-dominated track. Expect more of the same this weekend. Especially taking into consideration that this happens to be a stronghold for both Hamlin and Truex. Each is a favorite to win on Sunday, and as Jeff noted, this feels like a prime opportunity for Truex to score his first win of the season.

Who is a long shot you like at Richmond this week? Is there anyone you like to win who hasn’t yet won a race this year?

Jeff: Typically there wouldn’t be any sort of upsets in store at Richmond (although Chris Buescher did surprise everyone in this race one year ago). But there’s a big difference this week: the new “option” tires Goodyear is bringing. For the first time in a NASCAR Cup Series points race, teams will be able to choose between using the regular tires or softer (faster) compounds. If they put on the soft tires, those won’t last as long but could help gain speed in the short term before they go bad. Of course, Formula 1 fans will be familiar with the concept of different tire compounds, but it’s a new twist for NASCAR. So that could provide a strategy variation under the right circ*mstances, although it could also mean everyone does the exact same thing.

Jordan:Does Ty Gibbs count even though he drives for JGR? He is going off at +2000, a value that seemingly makes him a bit of a longshot. Another pick, this one with higher odds, is Josh Berry at +3000. The rookie ran well here in the spring, and the varying tire options play into his strength as a driver who knows how to best manage and maximize his tires.

Odds for NASCAR at Richmond winner

Odds, via BetMGM, update live.

Further reading

Braves, Reds to play game next season at Bristol Motor Speedway: Sources

Tentative 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoff schedule includes Talladega in semifinal round

(Photo of Martin Truex Jr.: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)